ACA Benchmark Premiums Rise 13% for 2027, KFF Finds, as Open Enrollment Opens Sunday
The benchmark silver plan that federal subsidies are pegged to will cost 13% more on average in 2027, according to KFF, after a 26% jump for 2026. That's 42% in two years. Most enrollees are cushioned by tax credits. People above 400% of the poverty line, about $63,840 for a single person, pay full price now that the enhanced credits have expired. Open enrollment opens Nov. 1.
By Claire Hollister, Politics and Policy
Published · 7 min read
The Overview
The facts, straight
Open enrollment for 2027 coverage on HealthCare.gov begins Sunday, Nov. 1. Figures below are from KFF's Oct. 30 analysis and CMS's Oct. 30 fact sheet; your own price depends on where you live, your age, your income and the plan you pick. Related: our earlier reports on House Democrats' 100-day affordability agenda, the welfare cliff and the court fight over Medicaid's "medically frail" rule.
The numbers. The benchmark silver plan on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, the second-lowest-cost silver plan that federal subsidies are pegged to, will cost 13% more on average in 2027, according to a KFF analysis published Friday, Oct. 30. That follows a 26% jump from 2025 to 2026. KFF says the two years together add up to a 42% increase in average benchmark silver premiums between 2025 and 2027. KFF built the figures from HealthCare.gov data, state rate-review websites, state plan-finder tools and data supplied by states.
The increase is not even across the country. In the states that use HealthCare.gov, benchmark premiums are rising 11% for 2027, after 30% last year. In states that run their own marketplaces, they are rising 16%, after roughly 17% last year (KFF). Earlier in the rate cycle, insurers had proposed a median increase of 15% across 276 marketplace carriers in all 50 states and D.C. (Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, July 8).
Why. In their rate filings, insurers point to faster-than-usual growth in the underlying cost of medical care, which KFF notes is hitting some employer plans too. They also cite the end of the enhanced premium tax credits, which expired after 2025. KFF's review of filings found insurers estimated that changes in who stays in the risk pool added about four percentage points to premiums in 2026, and they expect a similar additional effect in 2027 (KFF).
Who feels it. Most marketplace enrollees get a premium tax credit that absorbs much of the increase, because the credit is tied to the benchmark price. People with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty level get no credit at all now that the enhanced credits are gone, and pay the full price. KFF says they "will be particularly hard hit" (KFF; KFF subsidy explainer). For 2027 coverage, eligibility is measured against the 2026 federal poverty guidelines. In the 48 contiguous states and D.C., 400% works out to $63,840 for a single person and $132,000 for a family of four (HHS/ASPE 2026 poverty guidelines). The thresholds are higher in Alaska and Hawaii.
One example from KFF's earlier analysis of proposed rates: a 40-year-old in Indianapolis earning $65,000 paid $316 a month for a particular Anthem silver plan in 2025 with the enhanced credit. That rose to $477 in 2026 and would reach $546 a month in 2027 if the proposed rates held. That's a 41% increase over two years (Peterson-KFF).
Enrollment is already falling. Plan selections fell by 1.2 million in the 2026 open enrollment period. By February 2026, paid-up marketplace enrollment was down 12%, or 2.6 million people, to 19.2 million. The Congressional Budget Office projects marketplace enrollment will fall from a peak of 22.4 million in 2025 to 13.1 million in 2027. As of Oct. 29, 11 insurers had announced exits from at least one state for 2027 and seven had announced entries; Cigna is leaving the individual market in all 11 of its states (KFF).
What CMS says. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' plan year 2027 fact sheet, also released Oct. 30, does not give an average premium change. It says more than 75% of HealthCare.gov shoppers "will continue to have access to premiums at or below $50 in 2027," that people eligible for tax credits can get a plan with "nearly 90%" of the lowest-cost premium paid by the federal government, and that enrollees will have, on average, 35 HSA-eligible plans and about 100 plans from five to six insurers to choose from. Those are CMS's figures for HealthCare.gov states; they do not cover people above the subsidy cutoff, who pay full price.
Dates. On HealthCare.gov, open enrollment runs Nov. 1, 2026, through Jan. 15, 2027. Sign up by Dec. 15 for coverage that starts Jan. 1 (HealthCare.gov; CMS). State-run marketplaces set their own deadlines. KFF notes that a rule that would have cut open enrollment to nine weeks has been vacated in court (KFF).
Post: HealthCare.gov (@HealthCareGov) on X, Oct. 31, 2026.
Other changes this year. KFF also flags several 2027 changes from the 2025 budget law. Caps on repaying excess tax credits at tax time are gone. Certain lawfully present immigrants, including refugees and asylees, lose credit eligibility. And people denied or dropped from Medicaid solely for failing the new work requirement cannot get subsidized marketplace coverage (KFF). Some states, including New Mexico, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Virginia, are using their own money to replace part or all of the lost federal help.
What the Left Says
The progressive and Democratic case
Democrats say the main driver is a policy choice: Congress let the enhanced tax credits, first passed in 2021 and extended in 2022, expire at the end of 2025. They point to the subsidy cliff above 400% of poverty, and to insurers' own filings blaming part of the increase on healthier people dropping coverage. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said Democrats would move "right out of the gate" to bring the credits back if they win the House on Nov. 3, as we reported. House Ways and Means Democrats tie the increases to the 2025 budget law:
Post: Ways and Means Democrats (@WaysMeansCmte) on X, Oct. 26, 2026. Posted before KFF's Oct. 30 analysis.
"People have made it clear they want affordable health care, not higher premiums and less coverage," the committee's Democrats wrote. "Last year, Republicans cut health care all to give tax breaks to billionaires. Now, the effects are being felt everywhere." Democrats also point to the enrollment drop and CBO's projection of further losses as evidence that the market is shrinking because of the subsidy change.
Where Reality Likely Sits
Radio Purple's analysis
Both explanations are in the filings. Insurers name two causes: medical costs rising faster than usual, which also hits employer coverage, and a worse risk pool after the enhanced credits ended. KFF puts the risk-pool effect at about four percentage points a year in 2026 and 2027. That is a real share of the 26% and 13% increases, but well short of all of it. Restoring the credits would not reverse the rest. Cutting medical costs would not soon fix the cliff either.
Most people are shielded. Some are not. For most enrollees, the tax credit absorbs much of a benchmark increase, which is why CMS can say most HealthCare.gov shoppers can find a plan for $50 or less. The people who feel the full 42% are those above 400% of poverty, about $63,840 for a single person for 2027 coverage. The CMS fact sheet doesn't measure that group, and KFF's averages don't show their individual bills.
Common ground. Both parties say premiums are too high. Both have proposals on the table to change the subsidy design, whether by reviving the enhanced credits, funding cost-sharing reductions, or routing money directly to consumers. And both say they back more price transparency. A bill that smoothed the cliff, for example by phasing out help gradually instead of ending it at 400%, and paired that with the transparency and cost-sharing provisions Republicans want, would take from both sides' lists. Whether anything like that moves depends on who controls Congress after Tuesday's election.
What to do now. Shoppers should compare plans rather than auto-renew, because prices and plan lineups change for 2027 and some insurers are leaving. Shoppers should also estimate income carefully. Starting with the 2026 tax year, there is no cap on repaying excess credits (KFF).
Does your 2027 premium notice match these averages? Tell us.
What the Right Says
The conservative and Republican case
Republicans and the Trump administration argue that subsidies hide the real problem, which is what care and coverage cost under the ACA's structure. They say extending the enhanced credits would mostly send more taxpayer money to insurers. The White House's "Great Healthcare Plan" asks Congress to stop "sending big insurance companies billions in extra taxpayer-funded subsidy payments" and instead send that money "directly to eligible Americans." It also calls for funding the ACA's cost-sharing reduction program. The White House says, citing the Congressional Budget Office, that this would save taxpayers at least $36 billion and cut the most common Obamacare plan premiums by more than 10%. The plan also calls for posted prices, plain-English insurance comparisons, publishing claim-denial rates and overhead, and ending certain broker kickbacks.
CMS's fact sheet makes the case that subsidized shoppers still have cheap options, and that every HealthCare.gov shopper now has access to HSA-eligible plans under the 2025 law, which the administration calls the Working Families Tax Cuts (CMS). CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz has focused on price transparency:
Post: Dr. Oz CMS (@DrOzCMS) on X, Oct. 30, 2026. About price transparency, not the KFF premium analysis.
"The Trump administration is committed to advancing healthcare price transparency, lowering prescription drug costs, and expanding benefits for Americans," Oz wrote. Republicans also point out that insurers name rising medical costs, not only expired subsidies, as a main cause. KFF notes the same cost pressure is showing up in some employer plans.
Sources & Citations
- KFF, “9 Things to Watch for the 2027 ACA Open Enrollment Period”, October 30, 2026.
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “Plan Year 2027 Marketplace Plans and Prices Fact Sheet”, October 30, 2026.
- HealthCare.gov (CMS), “When can you get health insurance? (dates and deadlines)”, October 31, 2026.
- HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, “2026 Poverty Guidelines”, October 31, 2026.
- Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, “How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027”, July 8, 2026.
- KFF, “Explaining Health Care Reform: Questions About Health Insurance Subsidies”, October 31, 2026.
- The White House, “The Great Healthcare Plan”, October 31, 2026.
- X, “HealthCare.gov (@HealthCareGov) on X”, October 31, 2026.
- X, “Ways and Means Democrats (@WaysMeansCmte) on X”, October 26, 2026.
- X, “Dr. Oz CMS (@DrOzCMS) on X”, October 30, 2026.
Positions above are attributed to the public statements and published reporting cited here. Quotations are taken from these sources; Radio Purple does not publish unattributed or invented quotes. See an error? Request a correction.
