Why Some Races Won't Be Called Tuesday Night, and When Key States Expect to Count
A PBS News post saying it's normal not to know some winners on election night drew a two-word reply from the White House: 'No, it isn't.' Here is what each battleground state's law actually says about when mail ballots can be prepared, when they must arrive and when results become official, from Florida's 30-minute rule to Alaska's Nov. 18 ranked-choice count.
By Rachel Dunmore, Washington Correspondent
Published · 8 min read
The Overview
The facts, straight
The fight. On Saturday, PBS News shared a PolitiFact explainer with a simple line: if you go to bed on election night without knowing who won a congressional race, "that's normal," and if a candidate who trailed overnight is ahead in the morning, "that's normal, too."
Post: PBS News (@NewsHour) on X, Oct. 31, 2026.
Six hours later the White House's Rapid Response account quoted it with three words: "No, it isn't."
Post: Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) on X, Oct. 31, 2026.
White House Communications Director Steven Cheung and Kari Lake piled on within the next hour or so, and posts about election-night counting on X jumped more than sevenfold on Sunday compared with the days before, by our count. Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3. So which is it?
The short answer: it depends on the state, and state law decides. No state is required to finish its official count on election night. Every state reports unofficial results that night and certifies days or weeks later. What varies is how much of the count can be done that first night, and that comes down to three rules each legislature writes:
- When mail ballots can be prepared. Checking signatures, opening envelopes and flattening ballots takes time. Forty-four states let officials start before Election Day; six (Alabama, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin) don't let them start until Election Day itself, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. No state may release mail-ballot results before polls close.
- When mail ballots must arrive. Thirty-five states require mailed ballots to be in hand by Election Day. Fifteen states plus D.C. count ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive later, per NCSL's receipt-deadline table. In June the Supreme Court ruled in Watson v. RNC that federal Election Day law doesn't bar those grace periods, so every state's existing deadline stands this year.
- How the winner is decided. Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting. If nobody clears 50% of first choices, a second tabulation follows, and it takes time.
When key states expect to know. Here is what each state's own law or election office says. Times are local.
| State | Mail ballots must arrive | Prep/scanning can start | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | By 7 p.m. Election Day (Fla. Stat. § 101.67) | On receipt; scanning after equipment testing | Counties load early and mail results into their systems the night before (kept secret until polls close), must report them to the state within 30 minutes of polls closing, then update at least every 45 minutes. Unofficial returns are due by noon on the fourth day. |
| Texas | Postmarked by Election Day, received by 5 p.m. the next day (Wednesday, Nov. 4) | Up to 20 days before; scanning four days before in places over 100,000 people | Larger counties can scan mail ballots before polls close; mail arriving Wednesday is added after. |
| Ohio | By close of polls (new under 2025's SB 293; it used to be four days). Military and overseas ballots still get four days. | Before Election Day, timing set by county boards | Domestic mail ballots must all be in by poll close; only military and overseas ballots trickle in afterward. |
| Iowa | Before polls close | The day before, if the county commissioner chooses | Counties are to schedule absentee counting so it can finish by 10 p.m. Election Day. |
| Kansas | Postmarked by Election Day and received within three days. A 2025 law cut that window, but a court order blocks it for now. The Kansas Court of Appeals refused on Oct. 2 to lift the order. | Before Election Day, timing set locally | County canvass 6 to 13 days after Election Day; the State Board of Canvassers meets Dec. 1 (see the secretary of state's graphic below). |
| Michigan | By 8 p.m. Election Day | Places with at least 5,000 people can begin eight days before | Detroit expects to report about 95% of its ballots on election night, its elections chief of operations told PolitiFact, calling that "an estimate, not a statutory deadline or guarantee." |
| California | Postmarked by Election Day, received by Nov. 10 | As soon as ballots go out (29 days before) | Counties have until Dec. 3 to finish counting; the secretary of state certifies Dec. 11, per the state's calendar. Close House seats routinely take a week or more. |
| Maine | By close of polls | Seven days before | Towns have two days to report. If the Senate race goes to ranked choice, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows expects the tabulation to run until about Friday, Nov. 13 (Maine Morning Star). |
| Alaska | Postmarked by Election Day, received within 10 days; overseas ballots within 15 | Envelope review seven days before; scanning only after 8 p.m. Election Day | The Division of Elections says ranked-choice results "will not be available until 15 days after the election (November 18, 2026)" (results page). |
The Kansas secretary of state's office has been posting its own timeline. It stresses that election-night results "are unofficial" and don't yet include write-ins or provisional ballots:
Post: Kansas Secretary of State (@KansasSOS) on X, Oct. 26, 2026.
An Alaska update. On Sunday, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the Justice Department's suit seeking to hold up certification of Alaska's Senate race, which we covered when it was filed. Her 20-page order found the government lacked standing and denied leave to amend; DOJ has said it will appeal, CNBC reported.
What the Left Says
The progressive and Democratic case
Democratic election officials and voting-rights groups argue that a slow count is the law working as written, not a warning sign. Mail ballots, provisional ballots, ballots that need a signature fixed and ballots postmarked on time but delivered later are all legal votes. Checking and counting them takes time.
Maine's Bellows, a Democrat, put it plainly to the Maine Morning Star: "We think it's better to be accurate than fast, although we certainly are going to try to be as fast and accurate as possible."
They point to Watson v. RNC. In the Court's official summary of the ruling, "nothing in the federal election-day statutes requires ballots to be received by election day," and while federal law "dictates when ballots must be cast, state law governs when they must be received." In Kansas, the appeals court that kept the three-day window in place for Tuesday cited Kansans' "substantial interest in ensuring that well-meaning and qualified Kansas voters are not deprived of their votes."
They also note that the shift some Republicans call suspicious is predictable. Places that count mail ballots last, often big cities, can move the totals late. PolitiFact recalls that in 2020, Milwaukee's central count finished around 3:30 a.m. and erased Donald Trump's early Wisconsin lead, which analysts had expected. The PolitiFact piece PBS shared warned that slow counts "won't stop some politicians and their allies from spreading misinformation during vote counting." Those worried about the White House's response point to this fall's federal moves aimed at election offices: a judge's order on Friday barring DOJ and Homeland Security from threatening election workers over flagged ballots, and Judge Gleason's finding that the Alaska suit offered no way to investigate voters' intent "while simultaneously maintaining the secrecy of the ballot."
Where Reality Likely Sits
Radio Purple's analysis
Shared ground. Both sides say every legal ballot should be counted accurately, that voters deserve clear timelines ahead of time, and that results should be certified on schedule. No one in this fight argues for counting illegal ballots or for leaving legal ones uncounted.
What the record settles:
- Election-night results are unofficial everywhere. Every state certifies later. Kansas certifies Dec. 1; California certifies Dec. 11.
- Speed is a policy choice, not a sign of fraud either way. Florida is fast because its law requires early processing, Election Day receipt and reporting within 30 minutes. States that bar early processing or accept postmarked ballots after Election Day will take longer by design.
- Some timelines are fixed in advance. Alaska's ranked-choice count is set for Nov. 18. California accepts ballots through Nov. 10. Texas takes mail until 5 p.m. Wednesday. If Maine's Senate race goes to ranked choice, the state expects to finish around Nov. 13.
- Grace periods are legal for this election. The Supreme Court upheld them in June, and each state's own deadline applies.
- Late shifts are predictable. Which party gains from the later ballots depends on who votes by mail where, and those ballots are counted later in some states by law.
What it doesn't settle:
- Whether states should change their rules. Election Day receipt and early processing would speed counts. Critics say tighter receipt deadlines risk rejecting ballots that were mailed on time. That's a debate for legislatures, and several are having it.
- Which races will be close. We don't call races or treat polls as predictions; see what the polls said two weeks out for context, not forecasts.
- What happens on appeal in Alaska and Kansas. Neither appeal changes how ballots are counted this week.
For readers, the practical step: if you still have a mail ballot, check your state's deadline now. In about two-thirds of states it has to arrive by Election Day, not just be postmarked. Drop boxes or in-person return are the safe bet. On Tuesday night, watch your state election office's results page, and treat the totals as unofficial until certification.
What the Right Says
The conservative and Republican case
Conservatives argue that a count that stretches for days breeds distrust, and that it doesn't have to. "The media is already preparing their justification for potential shenanigans on Election Day," Cheung wrote:
Post: Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) on X, Oct. 31, 2026.
Lake called the PBS post a "set-up":
Post: Kari Lake (@KariLake) on X, Oct. 31, 2026.
Their model is Florida, where state law makes counties do much of the count before polls close and publish early and mail results within half an hour. Florida also requires mail ballots to arrive by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Republican legislatures have been moving in that direction. Ohio ended its four-day grace period for most mail ballots in 2025, and Kansas, North Dakota and Utah passed similar Election Day receipt laws, according to NCSL. Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, a Republican, has been defending his state's new deadline in court.
In Watson, the Republican National Committee argued that the federal law setting Election Day covers both casting and receiving ballots, so a ballot arriving later shouldn't count. The Court rejected that, but the argument hasn't gone away. Supporters of faster rules say a public that watches leads flip at 3 a.m. stops believing the result, and that every extra day of counting is a day for rumors to spread.
Sources & Citations
- X (@NewsHour), “PBS News post on X (election-night results are 'normal')”, October 31, 2026.
- X (@RapidResponse47), “Rapid Response 47 reply on X ('No, it isn't.')”, October 31, 2026.
- X (@StevenCheung47), “White House Communications Director Steven Cheung post on X”, October 31, 2026.
- X (@KariLake), “Kari Lake post on X”, October 31, 2026.
- PolitiFact (Amy Sherman), “When will we know 2026 midterm election results? It may take some time, but that's normal.”, October 29, 2026.
- National Conference of State Legislatures, “Table 11: Receipt and Postmark Deadlines for Absentee/Mail Ballots”, September 25, 2026.
- National Conference of State Legislatures, “Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin”, October 30, 2026.
- The Florida Senate, “Fla. Stat. § 102.141, County canvassing board; duties (2026)”, January 1, 2026.
- California Secretary of State, “Key Dates and Deadlines, Nov. 3, 2026, General Election”, January 1, 2026.
- Alaska Division of Elections, “Election Results (ranked-choice tabulation Nov. 18, 2026)”, November 2, 2026.
- Maine Secretary of State, “Ranked Choice Voting Information and Rules”, October 6, 2026.
- Maine Morning Star, “The outcome of Maine's US Senate race may not be known for weeks. Here's why.”, October 21, 2026.
- X (@KansasSOS), “Kansas Secretary of State post on X (election night to official results)”, October 26, 2026.
- Kansas Court of Appeals (copy via Democracy Docket), “Kansas Appleseed v. Schwab, No. 130,839, Order Denying Renewed Motion to Stay or Suspend Temporary Injunction”, October 2, 2026.
- Supreme Court of the United States, “Watson v. Republican National Committee, No. 24-1260 (opinion)”, June 29, 2026.
- U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska (copy via Common Cause), “United States v. State of Alaska, No. 3:26-cv-00376-SLG, Order Dismissing Action (Doc. 79)”, November 1, 2026.
- CNBC, “Alaska Senate: Judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit over Sullivan names”, November 1, 2026.
- CourtListener, “United States v. State of Alaska, No. 3:26-cv-00376, docket”, November 1, 2026.
Positions above are attributed to the public statements and published reporting cited here. Quotations are taken from these sources; Radio Purple does not publish unattributed or invented quotes. See an error? Request a correction.
