Two Weeks Out: What the Polls Say
Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 7 to 9 points and the president's approval has hit a second-term low. Is it a wave, or are the polls missing something?
By Claire Hollister, Politics and Policy
Published · 2 min read
The Overview
The facts, straight
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships on the ballot, Crosstab notes. Here is where the polls stand.
- Generic ballot: Democrats lead by about 7 to 9 points. Nate Silver's (@NateSilver538) Silver Bulletin average had Democrats at D+8.9 on Oct. 16, D+9.6 with a likely voter adjustment, and said the Democratic surge that began in early September "has leveled off," Silver Bulletin reported. Crosstab's average was D+7.3.
- Individual polls vary widely. Recent results range from D+2 (HarrisX/Harris) to D+14 (Economist/YouGov), Crosstab's table shows. ActiVote's Oct. 14 poll of 1,000 likely voters found D+6.6, the largest it has found this cycle.
- The president's approval: Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) found 41% approve and 57% disapprove, a record low for his second term, with the slide coming from Republicans, its October report says. It also found Democrats leading by 7 points among likely voters.
What the Left Says
The progressive and Democratic case
Democrats see a wave building. Their leads on the generic ballot are among the largest in years, and Morning Consult found Democrats in Congress are more trusted than Republicans on 11 of the 13 issues it tracks. With the president's approval at a low and Republicans themselves cooling on him, they argue the House is in play and the Senate is within reach.
Where Reality Likely Sits
Radio Purple's analysis
The data favors Democrats. But a generic ballot lead is a measure of mood, not a seat count, and two weeks is a long time. The honest read: Democrats are favored to gain ground, and how much depends on who shows up.
Wave or mirage? What do you think happens Nov. 3?
What the Right Says
The conservative and Republican case
Republicans and others urging caution have a case. The surge has "leveled off," by Silver Bulletin's own account, and some polls show a much closer race; HarrisX had it at 2 points. A national number does not decide individual House districts, and Republicans argue the polls have underestimated their support before. Turnout will decide it, which is why groups such as Turning Point USA are pushing young conservatives to vote.
